SIGAR: ‘Afghan government district control deteriorated’

The Afghan government’s ability to control its territory has “deteriorated” as the Taliban has gained control of additional districts, according to a report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). SIGAR’s latest report only confirmed the downward trend in Afghan government control that has been noted in ongoing analysis by FDD’s Long War Journal.

SIGAR’s evaluation is based on data provided by US Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) and Resolute Support, NATO’s mission in Afghanistan. It is likely the best case scenario provided. In the past, both USFOR-A and Resolute Support have significantly underestimated and understated the Taliban’s control of districts.

“The Afghan government’s district and population control deteriorated to its lowest level since SIGAR began analyzing district-control data in December 2015 and population-control data in September 2016,” the report noted.

According to the report, as of Aug. 2017, the Taliban controlled 13 districts and influenced 42 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts (13.5 percent combined), while the Afghan government controlled 74 districts and influenced 157 (56.7 percent). Thirty percent of Afghanistan’s districts remain contested, according to SIGAR.

Since the last SIGAR quarterly report, the Taliban took control of two more districts and gained influence in eight more. Afghan government control declined by 23 districts, and its influence was reduced in 11 districts.

SIGAR’s data jibes with analysis of Afghanistan’s districts conducted by FDD’s Long War Journal, which tracks Taliban controlled and contested districts (note: the US military and SIGAR’s assessment of control and influence matches LWJ‘s definition of control). As of Oct. 31, LWJ assessed 45 districts are controlled by the Taliban, and 115 more are contested. An additional 24 districts are claimed by the Taliban to be controlled or contested, but the claims cannot be verified by LWJ.

LWJ has documented the Taliban’s offensive that has allowed it to gain control or contest additional districts throughout all regions of the country. The Taliban continues to retain the capacity to mass its forces and overrun district centers and military bases, often with being opposed by Coalition and Afghan air power.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Tags:, ,

Let's block ads! (Why?)



from Long War Journal – FDD's Long War Journal http://ift.tt/2xGgLWu
via Defense News

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Oryx Handbook of Iranian Drones

Image
The goal of this list is to comprehensively catalogue Iran's past and current inventory of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and their armament. In an effort to streamline the list and avoid unnecessary confusion, this list only includes military drones associated with Iran's defence industry or military-grade UAVs with at least some chance of entering service. Notes:  - If several configurations of a drone with one designation are known, they are added as such.  - The part within the apostrophes refers to other designations or an unofficial designation. -  UAVs that did not enter service or have yet to enter service have been placed in the prototype category. - When a type is dual-capable, it is added in both respective categories. - Dubious claims are referred to as ''claimed to be capable''. - Although several types of Iranian UAVs have been sighted in Syria and Iraq, the foreign service section of this handbook only includes those confirmed to be in s
Read more

This Equation Shows You Can't Quantify Everything

Image
Yeah, I used a clickbaity headline. So sue me. Recently I went on an extensive rant about the fundamental assumptions of science. One of them, I said, was that things have to be measurable. And that's basically true, I think... but there are interesting subtleties. You might well be familiar with the weirdness of the quantum realms, as in the double-slit experiment where "particles" can apparently be in two places at once. What you might be less aware of is that much, much larger things can be just as hard to measure. You really don't need carefully controlled laboratory conditions to see how bizarre reality can get. Measuring some things is hard... In astronomy, if you're hunting for galaxies in a new data set, you have to try and estimate these things called completeness and reliability . They're quite simple concepts but they have very strict meanings - thankfully, for once, quite intuitive ones. Consider a naturalist trying to identify some meerk
Read more

Andrew Wyeth: Home Places

Image
  THE BRANDYWINE   FEBRUARY 4–JULY 13, 2023 Andrew Wyeth, Swifts – First Version, 1991, watercolor on paper. Collection of the Wyeth Foundation for American Art B3122r © Andrew Wyeth/Artists Rights Society (ARS)  Opening at the Brandywine Museum of Art on February 4, 2023,  Andrew Wyeth: Home Places  presents nearly 50 paintings and drawings of local buildings that inspired Wyeth time and again over seven decades of his career. The artworks in this exhibition are drawn exclusively from the nearly 7,000-object Andrew and Betsy Wyeth Collection of the Wyeth Foundation for American Art, now managed by the Brandywine. Many of these pieces have never before been exhibited, offering a first glimpse at a significant treasure trove that will shed new light on the collaborative creative process of Andrew and Betsy Wyeth. Andrew Wyeth, Widow’s Walk Study, 1990, watercolor and pencil on paper. Collection of the Wyeth Foundation for American Art B3144 © Andrew Wyeth/Artists Rights Socie
Read more